29 five-room resales in the block since March 2012, of which 8 on floors 10 to 15. Peers are other Bukit Panjang blocks with a similar lease start (2000 to 2006): 422 five-room sales on floors 10 to 15 in 52 blocks.
| Month | Floors | Area (sqm) | Price | Per sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02 | 13 To 15 | 113 | S$848,000 | S$697 |
| 2021-05 | 13 To 15 | 110 | S$700,000 | S$591 |
| 2020-12 | 10 To 12 | 112 | S$715,000 | S$593 |
| 2020-09 | 10 To 12 | 113 | S$675,000 | S$555 |
| 2017-09 | 10 To 12 | 110 | S$630,000 | S$532 |
| 2017-05 | 10 To 12 | 112 | S$640,000 | S$531 |
| 2015-06 | 13 To 15 | 110 | S$560,000 | S$473 |
| 2013-01 | 13 To 15 | 113 | S$655,000 | S$539 |
| Month | Floors | Area (sqm) | Price | Per sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 25 To 27 | 113 | S$960,000 | S$789 |
| 2026-04 | 16 To 18 | 113 | S$965,000 | S$793 |
| 2025-12 | 16 To 18 | 112 | S$945,000 | S$784 |
| 2025-02 | 13 To 15 | 113 | S$848,000 | S$697 |
| 2025-01 | 19 To 21 | 112 | S$918,000 | S$761 |
| 2024-08 | 19 To 21 | 113 | S$890,000 | S$732 |
The HDB index is at 202.8, -0.4% from its peak of 203.7 (2025Q3) and -0.0% on the year: four quarters of moving sideways. Bukit Panjang, adjusted for flat type, size, floor and age, is at 152.7 against a peak of 154.7 (Sep 2025), -1.3% and -1.3% on the year.
A causal walk-forward on the HDB index, with mechanisms written down first: 474 admitted condition-years, out-of-sample lift 0.82 overall and 0.28 since 2017 (1.0 is no better than the base rate). Own momentum scored 5.1 but on only 63 entries, 3 of them since 2017. Rates, rent growth and vacancy did better before 2017 and not since. Nothing meets the support rule used on the dashboard (a lift of at least 1.4 overall and since 2017, on at least 100 entries).
| Window | Lower after 4 quarters | Median, 4 quarters | 10th to 90th percentile | Lower after 8 quarters | Median, 8 quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| since 1990 | 32% | +4.9% | -5.6% to +18.5% | 33% | +9.3% |
| since 2004 | 33% | +4.9% | -3.5% to +12.0% | 34% | +12.5% |
| last 10 years | 28% | +5.2% | -1.2% to +11.1% | 22% | +13.4% |
| Peak | Trough | Fall | Quarters down | Quarters to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996Q4 | 2002Q1 | -30% | 21 | 26 |
| 2013Q2 | 2019Q2 | -12% | 24 | 9 |
The index has had 23 quarters in 7 spells where the four-quarter change stayed within 1.5%, as now. The next four quarters had a median of +0.1% and were lower 48% of the time; individual spells ran from about −10% to +10%. The quarters overlap, so this is 7 spells, not 23 independent observations.
| Spell | Quarters | Next 4 quarters, from the first quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 1991Q3 to 1991Q3 | 1 | +10.5% |
| 2000Q3 to 2000Q3 | 1 | -9.5% |
| 2002Q3 to 2002Q4 | 2 | +6.1% |
| 2006Q2 to 2006Q3 | 2 | +5.0% |
| 2013Q4 to 2013Q4 | 1 | -6.2% |
| 2016Q1 to 2017Q4 | 8 | -0.6% |
| 2018Q3 to 2020Q2 | 8 | -0.5% |
In Bukit Panjang the quality-adjusted index rose in 14 of 15 Septembers, by +1.18% on average against +0.16% in other months (t = 4.7); September 2026 was +3.0%. It does not show up elsewhere: other large towns average +0.15% to +0.59%, and all towns pooled +0.32% (t = 1.6). So it is a fact about one town’s past with no explanation I can test, and it is not used as a forecast.